Voting begins in crucial French Presidential runoff
Polls opened this Sunday morning in France’s presidential election run off, with voters choosing between young centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen in a watershed vote for the country and Europe.
This second round of voting pits the pro-Europe, pro-business Macron against anti-immigration and anti-EU Le Pen, two radically different visions that underline a split in Western democracies.
Reports say people betting on the outcome — on sports-betting websites and in currency and bond markets — seem to be pretty sure Macron will win.
Macron, who saw his lead in a poll conducted by Elable extend to 62% to Le Pen’s 38%, has attracted about 76% of all bets, totaling $1.1 million, according to Sportsbet.com.au. A winning bet on Macron will pay out $1.11 for every $1 wagered. Previously those bets were paying out $1.14.
Of course people were similarly sure that a pro-Europe vote in the UK, just before the country chose instead to exit the union, and pollsters were predicting President Donald Trump would lose the US election. In this case, those willing to bet against the grain would get a $7 payout for every $1 wagered on a Le Pen victory at Sportsbet.com.
It’s not just the polls and betting markets pointing to a Macron win. The spread between the French 10-year yield and the German 10-year yield is narrowing, a sign that traders believe Macron will win and France will stay on the euro.